Xiangpiaopiao (603711) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Juice Tea Enters the Low Season and Brewing Milk Tea Is Ready

Xiangpiaopiao (603711) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Juice Tea Enters the Low Season and Brewing Milk Tea Is Ready
The performance was lower than expected, and juice tea weighed on the gross profit margin of Q1 to Q3 201923.80 billion (+41.67%), net profit attributable to mother 1.32 billion (+57.41%), of which 19Q3 revenue was 10.3.0 billion (+23.85%), net profit attributable to mother 1.09 billion (-21.57%). The third-quarter performance was lower than expected. We believe that the main reasons are as follows: first, the sales 杭州夜生活网 of juice tea 19Q3 were less than 200 million, lower than market expectations;19Q1-Q3 gross profit margin 39.22% (+2.67pcts), of which 19Q3 gross margin was 42.31% (-0.26 pcts), we expect the increase in the proportion of low-margin juice tea will drag down the overall gross profit margin.19Q1-Q3 net interest rate 5.56% (+0.56pcts), of which 19Q3 net interest is 10.83% (-6.28 cases), mainly due to the decrease in gross profit margin and the increase in sales expense ratio3.98pcts (promotion of new products and additional advertising costs for juice tea), management fee rate increased by 2.58%. Juice tea is expected to reach one billion, and new brewing products are launched. From the perspective of products, in August, the company launched a new brewing milk tea series (Tong Fei Shuang Pin, Brown Sugar Shuang Pin, Matcha Shuang Pin 3 flavors) and invited Wang JunkaiSpokesperson for milk tea.After actively controlling the destocking of the goods in the second quarter (the new packaging of brewed milk tea has been listed), the growth of brewed milk tea has resumed, and the revenue of brewed milk tea in 19Q37.7.5 billion (+8.3%), of which coconut fruit series 5.12 billion (+8.7%), delicious series 2.6.3 billion (+7.7%), brewing milk tea is about to enter the 19Q4 peak season.Since liquid cow tea (cow milk tea and Lanfangyuan) is not the company’s main business at present, 19Q3 achieved zero revenue.3.7 billion (+ 12%), maintaining steady natural growth.Juice tea is the company’s main product this year. In mid-October, the company invited Deng Lun to be the spokesperson for MECO juice tea, and further moved towards younger products; 19Q1-Q3 juice tea revenue 77.1 billion, of which 19Q3 revenue was 1.83 billion (+226.79%), we believe that the 19Q3 juice tea exceeded expectations mainly due to the following reasons: the first and third quarters entered the summer vacation, the main target group of students brought holiday demand reduction; second, the terminal freeze display effect is not ideal; third, thirdThe company’s focus shifted to brewing milk tea in the quarter, and it was actively preparing for the fourth quarter and even the Spring Festival. Emerging regions are growing rapidly, and dealers plan for an orderly transition. From a regional perspective, the growth rate of Northeast, South China and North China accelerated, and overseas markets maintained high growth due to a low base.As of Q1-Q3 of 2019, the company has a total of 1,460 dealers, a net increase of 173. The new additions are mainly beverage dealers. The three specializations and the joint business plan of the dealers have been launched in an orderly manner, accelerating the coverage of blank areas and sinking terminal channelsTo strengthen control over terminal channels. Investment suggestion We expect the 19Q4 fruit juice tea to enter the off-season and try to continue its efforts after the Spring 杭州桑拿 Festival.The EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 0.88/1.13/1.46 yuan, currently expected to correspond to PE32 / 25/19, a reasonable estimate of 33 in the coming year90-35.03 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risks indicate food safety issues; product risks; sales of fruit juice tea are less than expected;