E Fund Fund: The short-term impact of the epidemic on the market is limited, and the long-term, medium-term and long-term bullishness
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Recently, the epidemic situation of new coronavirus has caused widespread concern worldwide. E Fund believes that there is long-term investment value in A shares. If the market adjusts due to the short-term epidemic event, it will bring good investment opportunities in the medium and long term.
With reference to historical experience, short-term shocks such as epidemics are difficult to change the market’s medium- and long-term trends. After the peak (Jin Qilin analyst) period, the market will generally be significantly repaired.
Take the SARS epidemic in 2003 as an example. At that time, the Chinese economy was in a rising period, and the epidemic itself had a trending impact on the market.
Since the first case of SARS was found in China on November 16, 2002, and until there was no case record in the country on August 16, 2003, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index decreased by 0.
92%, the market only showed a certain extent when the epidemic was severe.
The later performance of the market was more a reflection of excessive benefits to the economy at the time.
Since then, the A-share conversion of the mainland economy has taken off and opened a big bull market for 4 and a half years.
Reviewing SARS in 2003, 2009 swine flu in Mexico, Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2012, Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2013, MERS re-emerged in South Korea in 2015, and several rounds of bird flu events from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017.Quick repairs occurred after the short-term event shock peak period, and there were obvious positive benefits in 1-3 months after the event peak period.
Short-term event shocks are difficult to change the market’s medium- and long-term trends. If the market is significantly adjusted in the short-term, it will bring better investment opportunities in the long-term.
E Fund said that the epidemic may have a short-term impact on the economy and the market, but the time and magnitude of the impact is limited and it is not necessary to consume it excessively.
First, the current budget economy is generally stable and the quality of development has been steadily improved. Second, the international environment has continued to develop at the same time, and the first phase of the foreign exchange agreement has been reached, and the external pressure of the company has been gradually resolved. Finally, the central economic work conference has set a steady and stable adjustment.Monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and corporate financing costs continue to decline, which will provide strong support for the real economy, and the subsequent adjustment of countercyclical policies is expected to increase.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the government is expected to attach great importance to it and respond quickly. During the Spring Festival, multiple prevention and control and support measures were introduced intensively to avoid the expansion of immunization to the greatest extent, which can effectively affect the economy in the later period.
In the long run, domestic and foreign economic and market conditions continue to improve, and A shares still have long-term investment value.
The impact of eventual factors on market sentiment tends to be short-term, and the mid-to-long-term performance of the market is more determined by multiple factors such as economics, policies, and liquidity.
With the continuous deepening of capital market reforms, the market mechanism of A shares has improved significantly. Including various types of long-term funds that span the interior, investment in A shares is relatively more focused on the long-term value of the enterprise, and will not be excessively 西安耍耍网 affected by short-termImpact of the event.
At present, the CSI 300, GEM and CSI 500 are located at historical 35%, 67%, and 24% estimated quartiles, respectively. The estimated ratios with the major international indexes are also at relatively nominal levels, and there is not much downside.risk.
In the short term, the transportation, catering, and tourism sectors may be affected by the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical and other fields will benefit relatively.
Yi Fangda believes that A shares are in a good internal and external environment, the market mechanism is constantly improving, and it is estimated that the low level is a good stage. It still has high investment value in the medium and long term, and it is not necessary to excessively expand the short-term impact of the epidemic on the market.